Prediction and analysis of carbon neutrality in building sector in Shanghai

Based on the responsibility of promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind and the inherent requirements of achieving sustainable development, China will strive to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. As an international metropolis in eastern China, Shanghai has an important emission reduction task and responsibility in the building sector. In this paper, the emission factor method is used to measure the carbon dioxide emissions in the building sector in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019, and a carbon emission calculation model is established based on the Kaya identity. Combined with the scenario analysis method, the carbon emissions of building sector in Shanghai from 2020 to 2060 is predicted and compared under different scenarios. The results show that the building sector can achieve the 2025 control target under the continuation of existing policies, but in order to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality target, existing energy saving measures need to be strengthened. Finally, according to the prediction results, the suggestions on energy saving and emission-reduction measures in the building sector in Shanghai are put forward.